中国外贸增长方式转变的评价指标体系与实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Transforming Growth Pattern of China's Foreign Trade with an Evaluated Index System

从外贸规模、外贸结构、外贸效益、外贸可持续发展、外贸竞争力五个方面建立外贸增长方式及其转变的评价指标体系,以中国1995-2008年的数据,对外贸增长方式转变成效进行了实证研究表明,从总体上来看,外贸增长方式转变已有成效;规模指标显示外贸规模不断扩大;结构指标显示外贸结构在波动中优化,但优化程度与规模增长相比显得不足;效益指标、可持续发展指标、外贸竞争力指标,都有一定程度的上升。但贸易结构有待进一步优化,贸易条件需要进一步改善,环境、资源指标需要进一步提高,外贸增长方式转变的任务仍然十分艰巨。

We construct the index system which evaluates the growth pattern of foreign trade and its transformation from five aspects, which are the scale of foreign trade, the foreign trade structure, the trade efficiency, the sustainable development of foreign trade and the foreign trade competitiveness in this paper. After that, we also have the empirical study on it based on China＇s data from 1995 to 2008. The results showed that, generally speaking, the transforming growth pattern of foreign trade has been effective; scale indicators of foreign trade have been expanding; structure indicators to optimize foreign trade structure in the fluctuations, but the optimal level of growth compared with the scale seems inadequate; efficiency indicators,sustainable development indicators and foreign trade competitiveness index are all increasing, in some degree. But the trade structure needs to be further optimized with the further improvement of the trade terms. The environment and resource indicators need to improve further. So the conclusion is that the transformation of foreign trade growth pattern is still a very arduous task.