盈余持续性综合指标体系的测度研究——以A股制造业上市公司为例

Study on the Structuring of the Indicator System of the Earnings Persistence

在对国内外有关盈余持续性的概念、价值以及度量方法予以分析的基础上,采用基本分析方法,从时间序列角度提出盈余持续性分析的三阶段评价标准,即历史盈余表现、现实盈余能力以及未来盈余潜力,运用主成分分析法和熵值法构建出公司盈余持续性的综合指标体系,并利用2006—2008年制造业业上市公司盈余数据进行了检验,发现该指标体系能够比较客观地反映该行业上市公司盈余的持续性水平,从而为投资者对公司未来盈利能力的判断提供依据。

Based on the concept,value as well as the measurement method to the earnings persistence,this article puts forwards three-stage evaluation criteria from the perspective of the temporal distribution.Besides,it applies principal component analysis and Entropy to the earnings persistence analysis of the listed Chinese manufacturing companies from 2006 to 2008.The conclusion is that the indicator system can reflect the earnings objectively.It provides a basis for investors to make decision.