我国农业水灾与旱灾情况动态研究

Dynamic Study on Agricultural Flood and Drought Disasters in China

选取我国31个省市2000-2009年的水灾受灾面积、水灾成灾面积、旱灾受灾面积和旱灾成灾面积4个变量,基于统计学的相关分析和聚类分析方法对我国农业所遭受的水灾和旱灾情况进行了研究。结果显示,在2000-2008年,水灾受灾面积与旱灾受灾面积、水灾成灾面积与旱灾成灾面积的相关性都很小,但在2009年两者的相关系数变大;在2000-2009年,我国各类区域水灾受灾面积从波动较大向波动较小的趋势变化,但各类区域旱灾受灾面积从波动较小向波动较大的趋势变化,而且旱灾受灾面积有增大的趋势。针对所得结论提出了应加强对我国水灾和旱灾相关性研究、加强对水灾和旱灾区域生态的监控以及增加对农业灌溉设施投入的政策建议。

Flood covered areas,flood affected areas,drought covered areas and drought affected areas in 31 provinces in China during 2000-2009 were selected as analysis variables.Based on correlation and cluster analysis,agricultural flood and drought disasters in China were studied.The results showed that there was only very smaller correlation between flood areas covered and drought areas covered and between flood areas affected and drought areas affected during 2000-2008,but the correlation coefficients became bigger in 2009.During 2000-2009,the change of flood areas covered in China had a trend which was from big fluctuation toward small fluctuation,but drought covered areas were first small and then large,in an increasing trend.Some suggestions were put forward that the study on the correlation between flood and drought disasters should be enhanced,the supervisory to ecosystem in flood and drought disaster areas should be also strengthened,and the input in irrigation should be increased.