沈阳地区待建风电场发电量定量预报方法研究

Study on Quantitative Forecast Methods of Power Generation for Proposed Wind Power Plants in Shenyang

利用相关气象站资料、10个NRG加密测风站资料和龙源望海寺风电场发电量资料,在相关统计发电量与加密测风站风速、气象站与加密测风站风速以及各加密测风站之间风速均极显著的基础上,经反复模拟运算,建立了望海寺风电场1-2、3-6、7-9和10-12月各季逐日发电量与风速3次方回归曲线预报方程。经回代和试报,其年单机发电量相对偏差分别为0.01%和-2.1%。利用各加密测风站逐日测风资料,对待建风电场进行发电量定量预报,其年单机发电量依次为敖力营、郝关、榆树底、二牛、柳树、黄贝堡、双台子、山东屯和皇家。

The related weather station data,data of ten NRG encryption anemometers and the data of Longyuan Wanghaisi wind power plants were used.On the basis of the extremely significant of statistical analysis of related power generation and wind speed of the encryption anemometer station,wind speed of the weather station and the encryption anemometers,as well as average speed among each encryption anemometer station.By simulating,it set regression curve prediction equations： daily power generation and average wind speed from Jan.to Feb.,Mar.to Jun.,Jul.to Sep.and Oct.to Dec.at Longyuan Wanghaisi wind power plants.By examining,the deviation of single-machine power generation are 0.01% and-2.1%,respectively.By using the prediction model of Longyuan Wanghaisi wind power plants and daily power generation of these encryption anemometers,it forecast the power generation of proposed wind power plants.The annual power generation are as follow： Aoliying,Haoguan,Yushudi,Erniu,Liushu,Huangbeipu,Shuangtaizi,Shandongtun and Huangjia.