基于系统动力学的西安现代农业物流发展的对策研究

Study on the Countermeasures of Modern Agricultural Logistics Development based on Systematic Dynamics

[目的]利用系统动力学方法对西安现代农业物流产业的发展对策进行研究。[方法]采用系统动力学方法,以事实分析和相关数据为支撑探究现代农业物流产业发展的各种影响因素,同时以尽可能丰富准确的数据资料为基础,建立第三方物流与西安农业经济协同发展的系统动力学模型,并且对各影响因素进行实证分析。[结果]西安农业生产总值、物流需求和物流供给都呈不断增长趋势;仅通过提高农业物流需求的政策来降低农业物流成本的做法是不理想的;加大对农业物流的投入可以降低物流成本,促进经济水平的提高;第三方物流企业加大对自身的投资,可以降低物流成本,促进经济的发展。[结论]为加快经济结构的步伐调整提供理论上的支持。

[Objective] The development countermeasures of modern agricultural logistics industry in Xi＇an were studied based on system dynamics.[Method] By dint of system dynamics,reality analysis and relevant data were applied to support the exploration of each factor for the development of modern agricultural logistics industry.In the meantime,according to the concrete data,the systematic dynamics model was set up based on the third party logistics and Xi＇an agricultural economy cooperation.In addition,each influencing factor was expounded.[Result] The agricultural production,logistics requirement and logistics supply in Xi＇an City were increasing;the idea of reducing the cost through improving agricultural logistics was not ideal;the increasing input to agricultural logistics can reduce cost and can promote the development of economy;the third party increasing investment can reduce cost and accelerate economic development.[Conclusion] It provided theoretical basis for the adjustment of economic structure.