辽宁锦州50年最大连续降水量变化分析

Analysis on Maximum Consecutive Precipitation during 50 Years in Jinzhou of Liaoning Province

利用锦州1961~2010年5、6、7、8、9月农作物生长季的日降水资料,从50年的降水资料中选出5~9月各月中最大连续降水量采用一元线性趋势估计和小波分析等方法进行变化分析。结果表明,锦州最大连续降水量的平均变化趋势率总体是上升的。锦州站5~9月最大连续降水总量的总趋势是呈现缓慢上升的,在1994年出现历史最大值,达511 mm。在2003年出现历史最小值,仅为101.6 mm。锦州5~9月最大连续降水总量存在着2a左右的时间尺度周期。

According to daily precipitation data in crops growing season from May to September during 1961-2010 in Jinzhou,the monthly maximum consecutive precipitation in Jinzhou are studied by unitary linear trend estimation and wavelet analysis based on precipitation data from May to September during 50 years.The results show that the overall maximum consecutive precipitation average change trend rate is increasing.In Jinzhou,maximum continuous precipitation amount appeared in 1994,about 511 mm,while minimum value in 2003 was only 101.6 mm.About 2 a time-scale cycle exists in maximum continuous precipitation amount.