人民币和日元:竞争还是合作——基于汇率波动视角的分析

Renminbi and Yen:Competition or Cooperation An Analysis Based on Exchange Rate Fluctuation

文章以东亚十一个经济体为研究对象,以汇率波动为研究视角,在分析汇率波动与经济绩效相关关系的基础上,对人民币和日元与区域内其他经济体货币的汇率波动之间的比较静态相关性及二者的影响力进行分析。结论表明,尽管人民币在区域内的相对影响力在逐步提升,但当前人民币仍不具备成为主导区域货币合作的能力;而就中日产业结构差异和贸易互补性而言,深层合作是人民币与日元博弈的理想选择。

The paper uses the eleven East Asian Economies as research objects to analyze the correlation between exchange rate and economic growth and the comparative static correlation between Renminbi, Yen and other currencies from the perspective of exchange rate fluctuation. The conclusion indicates that although the regional influence of Renminbi is being enhanced, it still has not become the regional key currency; in terms of the difference of industrial structure and the complementation of trade, a further deep cooperation is the ideal choice of the game between Renminbi and Yen.