中国外汇储备飞速增长的根源与趋势预测——基于发展阶段视角

The Root and Trend Forecast of the Rapid Growth of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China:An Analysis Based on the View of Economic Development Stage

文章首先从发展阶段与发展方式的角度探讨我国外汇储备飞速增长的深层次根源,认为我国目前外汇储备规模飞速增长主要是由我国目前所处的经济发展阶段所决定的,国际收支"双顺差"的格局仍将持续5～10年。然后对2010～2015年我国外汇储备规模进行了预测,结论表明到2015年我国外汇储备规模将在5～6万亿美元,占GDP的比例在50%～60%,并且综合结果显示在2013～2015年我国外汇储备规模占GDP之比将达到最大值,然后开始缓慢下降。最后文章从三个方面提出缓解我国外汇储备飞速增长的政策建议。

From the view of economic development stage and mode, this paper investigates the underlying reason for the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in China. The results indicate that the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in China is determined by the current economic development stage and mode, and the ＂double surpluses＂ pattern of international payment will continue 5-10 years. Then it forecasts the long-term growth trend of foreign exchange reserves between 2010 and 2015, and finds that the scale of foreign exchange reserves will be 5-6 trillion dollars in 2015, accounting for about 50-60% of GDP, and the comprehensive results indicate that the proportion will reach the maximum between 2013 and 2015. Lastly, from three aspects, it puts forward some policy suggestions in order to alleviate the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves.