外贸出口虚拟污染及其“十二五”节能减排潜力分析

Analysis of Export Virtual Pollution and Potential in Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction in Foreign Trade for the 12^(th) Five Year Plan

我国对外贸易强劲发展,但在贸易价值量顺差的同时,出口引致的资源环境逆差日益凸显。本文通过投入产出模型,定量核算不同年度出口产值、虚拟SO2、CO2排放量,并分析其对经济增长与污染排放的影响。研究表明:外贸出口产值及虚拟污染占国内较大比重,且其经济贡献小于污染贡献,这在典型行业体现得尤为明显。截至2007年,多数典型行业"值污比"小于1。外贸行业污染贡献不容忽视,节能减排潜力更值得"挖掘"。2005年-2007年,外贸虚拟SO2排放量降幅10.4%,出口虚拟CO2排放强度降幅21%。分析表明:结合《十二五规划纲要》节能减排硬性约束要求,外贸行业在规模、结构与技术效应方面,具有巨大的节能减排潜力。

As a big country in foreign trade,China has been dramatically developing,and obtained enormous trade surplus in terms of monetary value.However,the environment deficit in terms of environmental indicators has become increasingly prominent and serious,gradually forming the situation of ＂exporting products abroad and remaining pollution at home＂.An input-output model was used to calculate the export monetary value and virtual emissions of sulfur dioxide（SO2）,carbon dioxide（CO2） embedded in products in foreign trade in 2002,2005,and 2007.Inter-annual changes in them and the impact on economic growth and emissions of pollutants,from foreign trade and typical industries,and from five dimensions of the export monetary value,virtual emissions of SO2,CO2 virtual pollution intensity,and contribution of ＂economy and pollution＂ were investigated.Results show that the export monetary value and emissions of export virtual pollutants were huge,and had a great proportion in GDP and national total emissions.Furthermore,the economic contribution was less than that of pollution contribution,especially in the typical industries.For 2007,the ＂economy-pollution ratio＂ in most typical industries was less than 1.The pollution contribution tended not to be neglected in foreign trade.However,the potential of energy-saving and emission-reduction can be further exploited.Emissions of export virtual SO2 embedded in products decreased by 10.4%,and the CO2 emission intensity was reduced 21% between 2005 and 2007.In addition,The 12th Five-Year Plan also puts forward clear and rigid bound targets in energy saving and emissions reduction.It is suggested that the foreign trade has great potential in energy saving and emissions reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan.From the size perspective,the total pollutant emission target,appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,and export tariff and quotas will play an active role.From the structural point of view,the industrial structure of the secondary and tertiary industry was unreasonable,which was 93% and 6.4% in 2007,respectively.The potential of the structure in energy saving and emissions reduction was not realized in the 11th Five-Year Plan.Experience from developed countries shows that structure adjustment contributed 70% in energy saving and emissions reduction.From the technical point of view,it would be greatly helpful in encouraging and promoting enterprises to use technology of energy saving and emissions reduction,and improving the resource-environment efficiency of products.Developing recycling economy and promoting low-carbon technologies will also play an important role.