基于CLUE-S模型框架的土地可持续利用情景预测--以阳泉市郊区为例

CLUE-S based Scenario Prediction on Sustainable Land Use:A Case Study of Suburban District,Yangquan City

土地持续利用是区域可持续发展的核心内容与重要基础,提高土地利用效率、优化土地资源配置是推动区域经济可持续发展的必要手段。土地利用规划在推动土地资源可持续利用方面发挥了重要作用。在现有土地利用数据的基础上,充分整合自然和社会因素的影响,全面考虑各土地利用类型的供需平衡关系,合理预测未来土地利用变化情景,特别是建立一个开放性的研究框架,是土地利用研究和规划实践中亟待解决的问题。本文以阳泉市郊区为例,提出简化的CLUE-S模型研究框架,探讨研究区不同发展路径下的土地利用变化情景,以期为土地利用规划提供决策依据。研究结果表明,在土地利用规划中,耕地优先原则、生态保护原则、效益提高原则依次为发展路径的先后选择顺序。较"生态涵养"及"超速掠夺"路径,"均衡发展"路径安排耕地18131.57hm2,安排建设用地14069.40hm2,可以满足阳泉市郊区在未来15年内粮食自给率上升27个百分点,国内生产总值年均增幅达到13%的用地需求,为最适宜发展情景。

Determination of the most ecologically sound configuration for towns and cities inhabiting millions of people is of importance in China.Improving land use efficiency and optimizing the allocation of land resources are the key measures to promote regional economic sustainable development.This paper presents a land use planning framework for land supply and demand in suburban districts of Yangquan City,Shanxi Province.The situation of land use change was analyzed based on land use and socio-economic data.By applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） method,the weights of driving factors of land-use change were calculated.By setting different development goals,different development paths of land use change on a 15-year timescale were analyzed.A possible way in land use planning field under the framework of CLUE-S model was proposed.Results show that the land priority principle,ecological protection principle,and efficiency principle could in turn be considered in land use planning.The ecological protection path,speeding plunder path,and balanced development path were set as three prediction scenarios.Compared to the ecological protection path and speeding plunder path,the balanced development path requires a farm land area of 18 131.57 hm2 and a construction land area of 14 069.40 hm2 to fulfill the goals that the self-sufficiency rate of food increase at a rate of 27% and the GDP grows at a rate of 13% per year.The balanced development path was the most appropriate development path of the land use planning scenario among the three scenarios formulated.Under the framework of the CLUE-S model,driving factors,conversion factors,and land demand jointly determined changes in land use,providing reference for land use planning.The three characteristics are able to describe the natural environment,social impact,and use cost,respectively.Therefore,urban land use planning should be made from the viewpoint of integrated study so as to ensure cultivated land quantity and quality,regional food security,and sustainable development among population,resources,and environment.In summary,the framework of CLUE-S was successfully applied to land use planning for the study area.A balanced development strategy for towns,based on land space analysis and pattern optimization,can provide an effective approach for space development and management in small-scale regions.This framework can also guide regions with similar spatial scales,improving the effectiveness and operability of land use planning.