额济纳绿洲生长季参考作物蒸散发敏感性分析

Sensitivity of Reference Evapotranspiration During Growing Season to Major Climatic Variables in the Ejina Oasis

敏感性分析是预测气象变量扰动引起的参考作物蒸散发变化的重要途径。以额济纳绿洲为研究区,运用FAO56 Penman-Monteith模型计算了额济纳绿洲1988—2007年生长季参考作物的日平均蒸散发,并计算其对气温、风速、太阳辐射和相对湿度的敏感系数。结果表明,额济纳绿洲生长季参考作物日平均蒸散发的敏感性系数波动较大;其中,参考作物蒸散发对太阳辐射最为敏感,其次是气温,最后是风速和相对湿度。利用敏感性系数能较好的预测参考作物蒸散发对太阳辐射、气温、风速和相对湿度扰动产生的响应。

Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the impact of climatic variables change on the variation of the reference evapotranspiration.In this study,mean daily reference evapotranspirations ET0 during growing season in 1988-2007 in Ejina oasis are calculated based on FAO56 Penman Monteith model and climatic data,and the sensitivity coefficients of ET0 to major climatic variables,including air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity and shortwave radiation are calculated too.Results show that the sensitivity coefficients of ET0 to the major climatic variables in Ejina oasis fluctuate significantly during growing season,and the sensitivity of ET0 to shortwave radiation is the most obvious,followed by air temperature,wind speed and relative humidity.According to this study,the response of ET0variation to variation of air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity and shortwave radiation can be predicted with high reliability by sensitivity coefficients.