沈阳市产业结构变动与经济增长因果关系分析

The Causality Analysis between Industry Structure and Economic Growth of Shenyang,China

基于灰色关联度分析-格兰杰因果检验两步法,对沈阳市1978～2009年间的地区生产总值(参考数列)和第一产业产值、第二产业产值、第三产业产值(比较数列)进行关联度分析和因果关系检验,得出以下结论:(1)关联度在不同的时间段具有差异性,且随着时间的推移,关联度呈下降趋势;(2)第一产业对经济增长的影响逐渐减弱,第二和第三产业对经济增长的影响呈加强趋势;而经济增长只对第二产业影响显著,且随着时间的推移,经济增长对第一产业逐渐失去影响力,对第三产业的影响也越来越不明显;(3)经济增长的主要驱动力是第二、第三产业,且第三产业对经济增长的驱动力越来越强。因此,要调整沈阳市的产业结构,稳步降低第二产业比重、增加第三产业比重是促进经济增长的有效途径。

Based on the data of GDP（as reference sequence）,the output value of the primary industry（IND1）,the secondary industry（IND2） and the tertiary industry（IND3）（as comparison series） of Shenyang City from 1978 to 2009,this paper analyzed the relationship and causality of the IND1,IND2,and IND3 to GDP by using the methodologies called grey relational analysis-Granger causality test two-steps.The outcomes show that,first,in different time periods the correlation is different,and it has a decreased correlation over time.Second,correlation between IND1 and GDP is becoming weaker.The impact of IND2 and IND3 on GDP is increased.However,GDP has only significant influence on IND2,GDP is losing influence in IND1 over time,and the impact on IND3 is also decreasing.Third,the main driving force of GDP comes from IND2 and IND3,and the driving force from IND3 will become stronger and stronger.Therefore,adjusting the industrial structure of Shenyang City,steadily reduce the proportion of IND2,increasing the proportion of IND3 is an effective way to promote economic growth.