外商直接投资能否促进中国制造业的清洁增长?

Does FDI Improve the Clean Growth of Chinese Manufacturing Industry?

选取我国制造业15个部门为研究对象,利用我国2002年和2005年投入产出表中的直接消耗系数矩阵以及三种环境污染物排放数据,全面衡量外商直接投资流入我国制造业对三种污染物排放的全部直接和间接影响。研究结果发现:(1)从外商直接投资对我国制造业污染排放的直接影响来看,外商直接投资主要流入我国制造业中相对清洁的部门,例如通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业;污染密集型的行业中外商直接投资占比很低,"污染避风港"假说在中国制造业不成立。(2)从外商直接投资对我国制造业污染排放的间接影响来看,外商直接投资流入后通过产业关联效应间接导致某些污染密集型行业的污染物排放增加,例如化学工业,因此"污染避风港"假说在中国并不成立的论断存在一定局限性,需要重新修订。(3)在不考虑产业关联时,我国制造业外商直接投资的流入结构表现为促进我国制造业的清洁增长,但考虑产业关联后,外商直接投资会通过间接效应导致制造业污染密集型行业污染排放增加,从深层次看,认为外商直接投资能促进中国制造业清洁增长的结论存在局限性。

Based on the Input-output table of 2002 and 2005,this paper analyzes the direct and indirect impacts of FDI on three pollutants emissions of 15 Chinese manufacturing sectors.The results indicate that： 1） according to the direct impacts of FDI on the pollution of manufacturing industry,FDI flows mainly to the relative clean sectors,for example,Manufacture of Communication Equipment,Computers and Other Electronic Equipment.The FDI share in the pollutant sector is relative small.The ＂pollution haven hypothesis＂ does not exist in Chinese manufacturing industry.2） According to the indirect impacts of FDI on the pollution of manufacturing industry,FDI will cause the pollutant emission increasing in the pollution intensive sector by the industrial linkage.Therefore,the ＂pollution haven hypothesis＂ is partly supported by the indirect impacts of FDI.3） Without consideration of the industrial linkage,we find that the FDI inflow will accelerate the clean growth of Chinese manufacturing industry.But with consideration of the industrial linkage,FDI will indirectly increase the emissions of pollution intensive industries.Therefore,the judgment that FDI will lead clean growth of Chinese manufacturing industry exist limitation.