中国外贸出口与经济增长关系的实证研究

Research on the Relationship between the Foreign Trade Export and Economic Growth of China

以中国为对象,运用时间序列模型,分析1979—2008改革开放30年间出口导向型模式与进口和国内经济增长的关系,结果表明,三者间存在长期均衡关系,由此建立的回归模型显示,出口能够促进一国国内经济增长,进口是一种补充,并且进口能够推动出口。此外,由于我国的特殊情况,出口对进口的拉动作用不明显。为使出口导向型模式在国民经济发展中发挥更大作用,我国应积极从"两个转变,两个消化"的方向对其进行调整。

This paper analyzes causality between export-oriented mode and import as well as domestic economic growth for China from 1979 to 2008 by using the panel data.The results indicate that,there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables.Panel regression models show that the export can promote a country＇s domestic economic growth;the import is a complement and also promotes the export.In addition,due to China＇s special circumstances,the impact of the export on the import is not obvious.In order to make export-oriented model play a greater role in national economic development,China should actively adjust it in the ＂two shifts,two digests＂ direction.