北非中东动乱及中亚:何如、何为与何去

Central Asia and the Social Turmoil in Northern Africa and Middle East

2011年以来暴发的北非中东地区动乱是这些国家社会矛盾长期积累的结果,"街头政治"是此次动乱主要表现形式。中东北非国家的的结构脆弱性是动乱的诱因,而这种结构性的脆弱归根到底是西式"民主"与"前现代"的东方式的帝王情节的碰撞和对决的结果。目前中亚国家结构脆弱性同北非中东国家也有类似之处,这种潜在危险也逐渐开始影响到中亚国家未来政治走向。

The turmoil occurred in Northern Africa and Middle East is the result of the accumulated social contradictions in these countries. ＂Street politics＂ is the main expressions of this turmoil, and the structural fragility of these countries is the cause. The fragility is in fact the result of the collision and duel of western ＇democracy＇ and the ＇pre-modern＇ oriental imperial complex. At present, Central Asian structural fragility is similar to that in Northern Africa and Middle East. The latent danger gradually influences the political direction of Central Asian countries.