甲型H1N1流感病毒DNA序列碱基的预测

Forecasting bases for DNA sequences of influenza virus A /H1N1

甲型流感H1N1亚型曾给人类带来了重大灾难。本文提出了一种利用时间序列模型预测碱基的方法,对所选取的1970年～2010年同源性相对较高的41条H1N1流感病毒数据利用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型对前20个位置去拟合并且预测,除极个别外由预报区域图显示原始数据都在预报区域内,表明模型建立的比较合理,预报效果很好,这对H1N1病毒的研究有着重要的意义。

Influenza virus A/H1N1 brought a major disaster to human in the past 2009. This paper proposes a method of forecasting bases by time series model, we choose 41 flu HI N1 data with high homology and use ARIMA （ p, d, q） model to simulate and forecast the top 20 positions. The forecast figure displays the original data is in the forecast area. This indicates that we establish reasonable models which have a better forecast. It is significant for the studing on H1 N1 virus