摘要
如何确定特许权期的长短是水电开发实施BOT特许权经营过程中的一个核心问题。特许权期长短的确定和项目投资金额、建造周期、发电效益、特许权出让金以及各种风险等众多因素有关。借助博弈论的研究方法,构建水电项目特许经营的博弈模型,采用逆推归纳法得到了政府选择特许权期的最优决策计算公式,揭示出特许权期Te与企业管理水平α、期望投资收益率Rc等之间的关系,并通过算例进行了验证。通过分析得知,水电BOT项目利润主要来源于项目公司的管理水平,提高项目管理水平能使特许期缩短、降低政府使用成本,同时满足项目公司的期望收益。
How to choose the concession term is the core issue in the course of carrying out Build-Operate-Transfer （BOT） concession operation in the hydropower development. The concession term is relevant to many factors, such as the investment amount, building cycle, generation benefit, concession transfer fee, risks and so on. Based on game theory, the game model of hydropower development concession operation was built, and then the best strategies of choosing concession term for the government were obtained by using backward induction. The formula indicated the relationship between the concession term ＂Te＇, management level a and expected investment rate of return which hadbeen verified by calculation examples. The analysis result indicated that the profits of BOT hydropower project mainly came from the project company＇s management levels. Improving management levels could make the concession term shorter, reduce the governmental application cost and meet the company＇s expected benefit at the same time.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
2011年第5期141-143,147,共4页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
水电开发
融资方式
特许经营
博弈论
纳什均衡
最优策略
hydropower development
financing mode
concession management
game theory
nasb. equilibrium
best-strategy
