基于AHP的中国碳交易价格影响因素评价

The China carbon trading price impact factor assessment based on the AHP

碳交易作为一种全新的交易,在我国发展迅速。目前我国以清洁发展机制为主要的交易项目,是全球碳交易市场最大的排放权输出国。然而我国碳交易的价格持续走低,远远低于国际碳交易的价格,使得交易利润被大幅度压缩,阻碍了我国碳交易的顺利发展。运用层次分析法,从市场、技术、生态、政策管理四个方面,选取对中国碳交易价格有影响的19个主要因素进行分析和评价,确定各个因素的影响权重,从而找出影响我国碳交易价格的最主要因素,得出排在前五位的影响因素分别是欧盟配额数量、各国的实际排放量、国际制度的变化、交易成本和碳信用的认证标准。根据碳交易价格的主要影响因素提出对策,促进我国碳交易的进一步发展,完善我国碳交易市场。

As a new trading, carbon trading has developed rapidly in China. At present, China takes the clean development mechanism as its main transactions, acting as the largest exporting country of global carbon emissions trading market. However, the price of carbon trading continued to decrease, far below the international price of carbon trading, making trading profits significantly compressed, impeding the smooth development of China＇s carbon trading. By means of hierarchy analytic, the paper analyzed and evaluated the 19 major factors that affect the China＇s carbon trading price, based on the market, technology, ecology, and policy management, then determined the weight of each impact factor, in order to identify the main factors that affect the Carbon trading price. The top six influence factors were the quota of the European Union, the actual emissions of all the countries, the changes of international system, the total amount of investment of the forestry, transaction costs and carbon credit authentication standard. Put forward countermeasures according to the main influence factors that affected the Carbon trading price, promote the further development of our country carbon trading, and perfect our country＇s carbon trading market.