中国经济周期波动研究(1978～2009年)

A Study on China's Business Cycle(1978～2009)

本文首先对1978年以来中国经济运行概况及不同学者的经济周期研究进行梳理;在此基础上,本文采用不同滤波方法,对1978～2009年中国经济周期进行了划分,并对产生经济周期波动的原因和传导机制进行了实证检验和深入分析。

Firstly, this essay briefly presents the business cycle since the reform and opening up. Meanwhile, it also discuses some research on such cycles. Then, employing different filter analysis, the essay divides the cycles into more detailed periods in order to do empirical research on the reason why the economy fluctuates. On the basis of that, an even more meticulous analysis is made on the transitions of such cycles.