用蒙特卡洛法分析重庆至宜昌段月客流的概率分布

Analysis on Monthly Passenger Flow from Chongqing to Yichang Section Based on Monte Carlo method

结合长江航务管理局实测统计的2006年-2009年各航段月客流量数据,运用蒙特卡洛等方法,对重庆至宜昌段总月客流量进行了模拟分析,并绘出了其概率分布函数图和概率密度分布图,得出重庆至宜昌段总月客流量近似呈正态分布。

Combined with the Yangtze River Administration＇s monthly statistics in various navigation sectors from 2006 to 2009,,this paper applies mathematical statistics and the Monte Carlo method to carry on analysis and simulation on total monthly passenger flow from Chongqing to Yichang section,and draws the probability distribution function charts and probability density distribution.Finally,it is concluded that the total monthly passenger flow from Chongqing to Yichang navigation sector approximately submits to normal distribution.