习惯形成、借贷约束与中国经济周期特征--基于RBC模型的实证分析

Habit Formation,Borrowing Constraints and the Real Business Cycle in China:An Empirical Study on a RBC Model

本文先确定1979～2009年间中国宏观经济波动的特征事实:消费、投资波动与产出高度相关,产出波动高于消费波动,但低于投资波动。然后,采用随机动态一般均衡方法,将居民消费的习惯形成和借贷约束引入RBC模型对中国经济进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)本文模型能够解释实际消费、就业、投资和产出波动的82.22%、79.09%、99.75%、99.57%;(2)这一模型对中国宏观经济的解释力要强于未包含劳动的RBC模型、包含资本劳动的可分劳动RBC模型、引入居民消费的习惯形成的可分劳动RBC模型。

This article firstly displays the stylized facts of China＇s macroeconomic fluctuations in 1979 - 2009, its consumption and investment is highly correlated with GDP output, GDP output＇s volatility is lower than investment＇s and is more than consumption＇s. By using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method, it introduces the habit formation and borrowing constraints into the RBC model to analyze the business cycles in China. It is found that this model can explain about 82. 22% , 79.09%, 99.75% , and 99. 57% of the actual consumption, employment, investment and output volatility. After comparative analyzing, it shows that this model would explain better China＇s macroeconomic fluctuations than the RBC model that does not include labor, than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and habit formation, which implies that the introduction of habit formation and borrowing constraints into the model greatly improves simulation results.