货币政策的区域效应——来自房地产市场的证据

The Regional Effect of Monetary Policy:Evidence from Real Estate Market in China

内部经济的异质性决定了货币政策存在区域效应。无论从房地产需求、房地产供给还是房地产的金融支持来看,房地产市场都具有显著的异质性,这强化了货币政策在房地产市场的区域效应。本文分别从房地产需求和供给两个层面考察货币政策在房地产市场的传导效应及其区域差异,结果表明:(1)从房地产需求来看,利率必须到达一定基点后才能有效抑制房地产需求,并且东部地区较中西部地区效果更好;(2)从房地产供给来看,全国层面和东部地区当期利率的提高能够在一定程度上抑制土地购置面积。房地产开发投资对利率变化敏感,其中在全国层面和东部地区更显著;(3)商品房竣工面积对利率变化不是十分敏感,而受银行信贷规模影响十分显著,且中西部地区受银行信贷规模影响最明显。

Heterogeneity among the internal economy determines the regional effects of monetary policy. In terms of demands, supplies and financial support, real estate market has significant regional effect, which strengthens the regional effect of monetary policy in the real estate market. The paper dwells upon transmission effect and its difference as far as real estate demands and supplies are concerned. The results shows that ： （ 1 ） The interest rate would be required to reach a certain point which can effectively control real estate demands, and it shows the better effect in the eastern region than the central and western regions. （2） In the national level and at the eastern region, the increase in current interest rates can inhibit to some extent the area of land acquisition. Investment in real estate development is sensitive to the interest rate, which are obvious in national level and the eastern region. （3） The completion squares of real estate is not very significant to interest rates, but is very sensitive to the bank credit is very significant, which the central and western regions are obviously affected by bank credit. So, the regional effect of monetary policy exists in real estate market.