标会套利和系统性标会违约——对温州市春风镇标会会案的实证分析

Systematic Bidding ROSCAs Defaults:An Empirical Analysis on Chunfeng Town Case

本文进行了三方面的工作。首先,我们提出了对标会分析具有一般意义的两个基本分析工具:标会参与者的资产负债分析和标会违约的简约化模型。其次,我们利用上述分析工具对一个真实的典型标会会案进行实证分析,揭示了其中标会套利、标会利率升高以及标会违约预期等现象,并报告标会清算方面的调查发现。最后,从"疏、防、治、惩"四方面提出关于控制和处理系统性标会违约风险的政策建议。

This paper makes three contributions. Firstly, the authors introduce two basic tools useful in bidding ROSCAs research ： namely, bidding ROSCAs participants＇ asset and liability analysis, and a reduced form model of bidding ROSCAs defaults. Secondly, using a systematic bidding ROSCAs defaults case in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, the authors empirically study and find the evidence of bidding ROSCAs arbitrage, increase in interest rate, and bidding ROSCAs defaults expectation. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed to control and manage the systemic bidding ROSCAs defaults.