重庆市水资源综合规划之经济社会指标预测

Prediction on economic-social indexes of Chongqing City for comprehensive water resources plan

为了编制好重庆市水资源综合规划,合理进行需水预测,必须对重庆市社会经济发展布局与产业结构进行准确的预测。重庆市水利规划院于2003年9月开始对重庆市社会经济发展进行专题研究,分析了重庆市社会经济发展的历史及现状,并对重庆市2010,2020年和2030年的人口、经济发展、经济结构、农业、高用水工业、一般工业、建筑业和第三产业的发展情况,以及相关时段的发展速度进行了预测。根据最新发布的《重庆市统计年鉴2006》和《重庆市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,对预测成果进行了符合性检查分析。分析结果表明,预测成果基本合理,能作为重庆市水资源综合规划需水预测的基础。

In order to make comprehensive plan of water resources for Chongqing City to reasonably predict the water demand, the social - economic layout and industrial structure of Chongqing City must be predicted accurately. Chongqing Water Conservancy Plan Institute began special research on social and economic development of Chongqing City from September, 2003. In the research, the history and present state of social and economic development of Chongqing City were analyzed; the development condition of the population and economy, economic structure, agriculture, high water-consumption industry, common industry, building industry and the third industry in 2010, 2020 and 2030 are predicted, so are the developing speed in the relative period. The prediction results are checked with the newest （Statistical Yearbook of Chongqing City 2006）） and （（The Eleventh Five - year Plan Outline of National Economy and Society Development of Chongqing City）. It is shown that the results are reasonable.