赣江袁河流域水资源承载力探讨及发展建议

Discussion on water resources bearing capacity of Yuanhe branch of Ganjiang River and development suggestions

从水资源可持续利用的角度出发,提出了水资源承载能力计算方法,对赣江支流袁河流域2015年和2030年的水资源承载能力进行探讨。以水资源可承载人口和可承载GDP两个指标,并结合承载水平对袁河水资源的承载能力进行评价。计算结果表明,在2015年的特枯和2030年的偏枯和特枯情况下水资源不同程度制约了流域经济发展,同时提出了诸如调整产业结构、合理配置水资源等提高水资源承载能力的各项措施和建议。采用上述措施后,在远景年较枯年份,供水安全可以得到保障。

The calculation method of water resources bearing capacity is proposed from the view of sustainable utilization of water resources, and the water resources bearing capacity of Yuanhe River, a tributary of Ganjiang River in Jiangxi Province, in 2015, 2030 is calculated. Taking the two indexes of bearing population and bearing GDP as evaluating indexes and combing with bearing level, the water resources bearing capacity of Yuanhe River is evaluated. The evaluated results show that the water resources will restrict the economic development under the extreme dry condition of 2015 level and the dry and extreme dry condition of 2030 level; the corresponding measures such as adjusting industrial structure, rational water resources allocation are proposed. The water supply safety would he guaranteed even under the extreme dry condition in the future through the above measures.