气候变化对我国棉花生产的影响

Effect of Climate Changing on Cotton Fiber Production

棉花为喜高温、干旱、无限生长型植物,其产量品质形成对光照、辐射、积温等环境变化较其他作物更为敏感。全球温室化导致的积温增加、CO_2浓度上升、辐射量下降、水分分布不均匀及极端天气爆发日趋频繁将对棉花生产产生显著影响。棉花生长期(4—11月)长达7个月,其产量品质形成关键期(7—9月)极易遭受多种极端天气气象条件。因此,尽管温室化效应产生的气温升高、CO_2浓度增加将对棉花增产提质带来积极影响,并一定程度扩大我国可种植面积,但温室化效应导致的光辐射量的下降、尤其是短期极端高温/低温、短期极端干旱/暴雨等极端天气发生的日趋频繁将严重威胁我国的棉花安全生产。因此,进行前瞻性的气候变化对中国棉花生产影响的评估、棉花适宜种植区的重新区划、环境稳定型棉花品种选育、应对极端气候条件下的棉化抗逆栽培技术体系的构建对保证全球温室化背景下我国棉花产业的稳定和发展具有极其重要的意义。

Cotton is an indeterminate growth plant which prefers to grow in comparative high temperature and droughty condition. And the development of cotton fiber yield and quality is more sensitive to solar radiation, water condition and environment temperature than most of other crops. It is believed that the enhancement of temperature and CO2 concentration, the reduction of solar radiation and the imbalance of rainfall would cause great changes on cotton fiber production. As the cotton grow season lasts seven months long（from April to November）, it is inevitable to encounter kinds of extreme weathers. So, even the enhancement of temperature and CO2 concentration in the future could to some extent increase cotton fiber yield and quality, the reduction of solar radiation and the extreme weather such as temporary drought/waterlogging and extremely high/low temperature would highly risk cotton production of China in large fluctuation. Therefore, it is in great necessary to strategically evaluate the effect of global worming on Chinese cotton production, to re-define the fitting planting area, to breed high environment-stress tolerance cultivar and to figure out special techniques to tackle extremely weather for us.