工业化进程中碳排放变化趋势研究——基于主要发达国家1850～2005年的经验启示

Carbon Emissions Trends in Industrialization Process Based on the Data of Major Developed Countries 1850 to 2005

基于对主要发达国家1850～2005年工业化以及碳排放的历史数据,考察了发达国家在实现工业化过程中碳排放的演变趋势,从中得出碳排放和一国工业化进程间的规律性。使用碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和碳排放强度三个指标多角度分析了碳排放的演变特性与规律,分析了各国碳排放周期,指出了工业发展中碳排放倒U型发展模式,并将整个周期划分为五个不同阶段。结合发达国家的经验,针对包括我国在内的发展中国家,提出了保持经济高速增长的同时,有效降低碳排放的建议。

This paper analyzes the historic data of energy consumption and carbon emission in major developed countries worldwide during the entire process of industrialization from 1850 to 2005. Using three different carbon emission indicators, it shows the characteristics of carbon emission＇s evolution. This paper divides the whole carbon emission cycle into five stages, and also proposes and assesses different development paths for developing countries to achieve low carbon economy during their industrialization process.