基于MATLAB的兰州市商品住宅价格变动分析及预测

An Analysis and Prediction of Commercial Housing Price Changes in Lanzhou Based On MATLAB

根据2001～2010年的相关数据,利用MATLAB建立了兰州市商品住宅价格变动趋势的数学模型Zt=p2t2+p1t+p0,以及商品住宅价格的多元线性回归模型log Z=C0+C1log(N1)+C2log(N2)+C3log(N3)+C4N4并进行分析,考虑4个主要影响因素:人口数、房地产开发商平均投资成本、人均收入、一年期定期存款利率.结果表明:兰州市商品住宅价格与时间呈二次非线性增长,没有明显的周期性,并预测了兰州市2011年商品住宅价格为8 846元/m2;兰州市商品住宅价格与4个主要影响因素的偏相关系数分别为rZN1=0.902 0、rZN2=0.999 2、rZN3=0.916 2、rZN4=-0.899 0,其中房地产开发商平均投资成本对商品住宅价格的影响作用最大.

With the help of the data of the years 2001-2010,a mathematical model of commercial housing price changes in Lanzhou is established.. Zt = P2t^2＋ Plt ＋p0. A multiple linear regression equation of com- mercial housing prices is also analyzed, log Z = Co ＋ C1 log（N1 ） ＋ C2 log（N2 ） ＋ C3 log（N3 ） ＋ C4 N4 . Four main factors including population, average investment cost of real estate agents, per capita income, one-year deposit interest rate are considered. The results show that price of commercial housing is a quadratic nonlinear growth with time,which was no obvious periodicity. The commercial housing price of the year 2011 in Lanzhou is estimated to be 8 846 yuan/m^2. The partial correlation coefficients of these main factors that affect the price of commercial housing are rZN1 =0. 902 0,rZN2 =0. 999 2,rZN3 =0. 916 2,rZN4 =0. 899 0. The influence of the average investment cost of real estate agents is the greatest of all.