从不同视角看全球石油市场——比较OPEC《世界石油展望2010》与IEA《世界能源展望2010》

Look at the global oil market from different perspectives

本文对OPEC《世界石油展望2010》与IEA《世界能源展望2010》的关键论点、论据做了分析和比较,透视了这两大组织对全球石油市场预期展望的异同,主要结论是:OPEC的报告短期内更可信、情景分析更现实,而IEA的报告对中长期石油市场给出了更宽阔的视角,试图指引未来能源市场的变化方向。同时,两份报告也体现了其各自的利益关注和政治取向。

This paper analyzes and compares the main views and differences between the ＂World Oil Outlook 2010＂ by OPEC and the ＂World Energy Outlook 2010＂ by IEA. Main conclusions are that the ＂World Oil Outlook 2010＂ by OPEC is more practical in the short- and mid-term, while the ＂World Energy Outlook 2010＂ by IEA provides more to the reader from the view of analysis, and tries to direct the future energy market. However, these reports reflect their own interests concern and political orientation.