摘要
"舆论在先,动乱在后",已成为普遍共识的认知.研究舆论的形成机理及其演化规律,进而调控舆论传播的导向有着重要的理论和现实意义.舆论系统是一个典型的复杂系统,系统建模与仿真分析是舆论全方位研究的有效手段.本文以物理-事理-人理系统方法论为指导,以多主体建模方法为手段,以舆论可视化仿真平台为依托,定义了舆论主体的偏好行为,模拟了舆论演化的过程,总结了舆论演化的规律.
＂Public opinion comes before the unrest＂ has become a consensus. Understanding and capturing the essential mechanism of opinion formation and infection will provide help for forecasting and macroeconomic regulation. Public opinion is an open complex giant system, in which stud- ying opinion based on modeling and simulation analysis is a more comprehensive and effective means. The paper presents one overall model of methodology-method-technology-simulation from the view of systems science besides going through the definitions of Wuli-Shili-Renli and multi- agent system, then summarizes the individuals＇ behaviors such as ＂conformity＂, ＂power＂, ＂egoism＂, etc., analyzes individual choices and constructs three interaction rules. The opinion evolution process was simulated quantitatively and some primary conclusions were obtained.
出处
《上海理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第4期331-336,共6页
Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024010)
中国科学院创新团队项目(KACX1-YW-1011)
关键词
舆论
多主体系统
建模
仿真
public opinion
multi-agent system
modeling
simulation
