突发交通事件信息影响下交通网络行为微观计量分析

Microscopic quantitative analysis of traffic network behavior under influence of unexpected event related information

研究了突发交通事件下地面道路可变情报板(SVMS)同时提供高架和地面道路行程时间条件下的驾驶员择路行为.采用意向行为调查获取择路行为数据,运用微观计量经济学中的离散选择分析方法对影响路径选择的因素进行了多变量分析,建立了描述择路概率的二元Logit模型.研究发现,SVMS信息对择路决策有显著影响,影响大小与驾驶员属性、信息内容及地面道路属性有关;驾龄越长、年龄越大的男性驾驶员,接收SVMS信息后选择地面道路的可能性更大;经常使用高架、认为高架可变情报板对其择路决策很有用的驾驶员,选择地面道路的可能性更小;高架延误越大、地面道路信号灯路口越少、延误原因为事故时,选择地面道路可能性更大.研究成果为交通突发事件下交通诱导策略优化提供理论依据和政策启示.

Route choice corresponding to shorter street and urban freeway travel time displayed by street variable message signs （SVMS） was investigated. Stated preference survey was conducted to collect behavioral data, and a binary Logit model was established to identify the factors influencing drivers＇ route choice decisions. The results show that, SVMS has significant impact on route choice and the impact depends on driver attribute, street characteristics, and SVMS messages. Specifically, older male drivers with longer years of driving experience are more likely to choose local streets in response to freeway delay information indicated by SVMS frequent freeway users, having high acceptance of freeway VMS, are less likely to choose local streets ; longer freeway delay as well as freeway incident-induced delay and fewer signalized intersections on local streets serve as positive factors for choosing local streets. The study aims to give theoretical and policy implications for better design of unexpected events oriented traffic guidance strategy.