重大突发事件情景演变中的即兴决策

A Study on Improvised Decision-Making in Scenario Evolvement of Serious Emergency

本文在案例分析的基础上,对重大突发事件的特征进行了辨识,依据决策理论对一般决策、应急决策与即兴决策的涵义和主要特征进行了归纳,提出了重大突发事件环境下进行即兴决策的必要性;最后,本文分析了在事件发生的不同阶段、不同的决策层级等条件下即兴决策应用的频率和重要程度。

On the basis of case study,the properties of serious emergency are first identified in this paper.Then,the connotation and main characteristics of general decision-making,emergency decision-making and improvised decision-making are discussed on the basis of the decision theory.What＇s more,this thesis puts forward the necessity of improvised decision-making in serious emergency.Finally,the paper analyses applied frequency and importance of improvisational decision-making in different stages during the emergency and for decision makers in different levels.