不同类型跨境资本流动对通货膨胀影响的时变特征——兼论国际间“跨境短期资本流动量交易市场”的建构

The Influence with Time-varying Characteristics of Different Cross-border Capital Flow on Inflation——Concurrently on the Construction of International "Cross-border Short-term Capital Flow Exchange Market"

文章深入探究不同类型跨境资本流动影响通货膨胀的传导路径以及时变特征。研究发现,通货膨胀率与跨境资本流动之间显现较为复杂的非线性关系;由于大量流入所引发的累积效应,近年来外商直接投资重拾对总体物价水平上涨的影响;而2001年开始对外直接投资产生的宏观经济紧缩效应呈现逐年递增的态势;近期证券投资流入也重拾对总体物价水平上涨的影响,但2000年开始对外证券投资对物价水平的推升作用比之前明显减弱;受外部经济状况变化的影响,并通过汇率、货币供应量以及实体经济增长等较为复杂的传导机制,跨境金融机构借贷资本流动对国内通胀率不存在显著性作用;与其他现有研究成果不同,本文认为1997年至今跨境投机性资本流动对实体经济的紧缩效应非常明显。因此,宏观当局应充分掌控跨境资本流动影响的动态特征,积极参与国际间"跨境短期资本流动量交易市场"的构建,确保跨境资本流入或流出总量的基本平衡,以基本消除宏观经济出现系统风险的隐忧。

The article conducts an in＇depth analysis of the time-varying characteristics and the transmission routes that are related to the influence of different cross-border capital flow on inflation. The results indicate that there are complex non-linear relationships between inflation and cross-border capital flow. Triggered by the cumulative effect in recent years, FDI has regained the overall positive impact on domestic price level in recent years. And since 2001, the tightening effect of outbound direct investment on macroeconomy has increased progressively. The recent inflow of portfolio investment regained the impact on the overall rising price level, while the effect of outbound portfolio investment in pushing up prices has been fading out since 2000. On the basis of changes in external economic conditions and complex transmmission mechanisms through exchange rate, money supply and real economic growth, the impact of cross-border financial loaning on inflation is of no significance. Different from the conclusions of extant literatures, the article argues that the cross-border speculative capital flow has apparent tightening effect on the real economy since 1997. Therefore, macro authorities should fully pay attention to the dynamic properties of cross-border capital flow, and participate in the construction of International ＂Cross-border Short-term Capital Flow Exchange Market＂. The market will ensure the balance of payments of total capital inflows and outflows, so as to eliminate the uncertainties in macroeconomic development.