人民币名义汇率制度非中性辨析

Is RMB Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Non-neutral?

2005年7月21日的人民币汇率制度改革,为检验名义汇率制度是否中性,提供了一个案例机会。此次汇改,在"事实"上提高了人民币与美元双边名义汇率的弹性,降低了人民币与非美元货币的名义汇率弹性以及名义有效汇率的弹性。名义汇率波动程度的变动使得人民币美元双边实际汇率的标准差变为汇改前的大约两倍,但降低了人民币欧元、人民币日元的双边实际汇率和人民币实际有效汇率的波动幅度。结果表明,人民币名义汇率制度是非中性的。

The reform of RMB exchange rate regime on July 21st, 2005 was a good opportunity to test whether RMB nominal exchange rate regime is neutral. This reform actually raised the elasticity of RMB nominal exchange rate against USD, and reduced the elasticity of RMB nominal and effective exchange rate against non-USD currencies. Due to the change in nominal exchange rate volatility, the standard deviation of RMB/USD real exchange rate was approximately twice the amount before the reform. But the volatility of RMB real and effective exchange rate against EUR and JPY reduced. The results show that RMB nominal exchange rate regime is non-eutral.