二手房对商品房市场的影响机理及调控政策研究——以厦门市为实证

Study on influence mechanism of real estate market tacking account of the second hand housing transaction under macro-control policy

新房和二手房共同形成了针对不同收入群体的梯度商品房市场,虽然在短期内二手房的交易会抑制新房市场;但从长期来看,二手房的激烈交易转移了部分新房需求的同时,却又增加了新房的需求,从而推动了新房市场的发展.采用系统动力学原理及方法,深入剖析了二手房交易及其宏观调控政策与商品房市场发展的互动机理,构建了二手房对商品房市场影响的动力模型,以厦门市2000年至2007年房地产市场交易数据为基础,采用Vensim PLE软件模拟和预测了厦门市2008年至2015年房地产市场发展趋势;并改变二手房交易的各种宏观调控政策,模拟其对商品房市场的影响,提出了计及二手房交易的宏观调控商品房市场的各种建议和措施.

For different income groups,new house and second hand house comprise the real estate market classified hierar-chically.The second hand house transaction can divert the demand from the new house market,and curb the new house demand and price in short term,but it adds the new house.demand from the sellers of the second hand house in the long run,which promotes the new house market.The interactive mechanism among the real estate market,the second hand house transaction and its policy intervention was analyzed with System Dynamics,and the dynamic mechanism and dynami model was set up.The dynamic model runs in Vensim PLE software using the data from Xiamen.The coefficient of the intervention policy of second-hand housing transaction was chosen as the control variable for simulation,and the influence degree of different policy scenarios on real estate market was analyzed.Three types of effective and positive countermeasures were proposed to advice Xiamen government to curb the excessive price increases and promote the development of rel-evant industries.