基于马尔可夫模型的福州市耕地动态变化预测

The Markov Model for the Forecast of Cultivated Land Dynamic Changes in Fuzhou City

以福州市为研究区域,以1988年和2008年TM遥感影像、2004年ASTER遥感影像为数据源,在遥感和GIS技术支持下编制1988年、2004年和2008年土地利用图,求取研究区1988-2004年土地利用转移概率矩阵,并运用2008年数据进行验证。采用验证后的马尔柯夫模型预测未来耕地动态变化,结果表明:未来20年福州市耕地面积持续减少,耕地、水田和旱地三者变化趋势基本一致,分别减少了3858.4 hm2、3681.5 hm2和176.9 hm2,导致耕地保护与建设用地扩张之间的矛盾将更加突出。马尔可夫模型在耕地动态变化预测中具有较好的适用性和简便性,但还需要其它方法配合以提高精度。

Based on three phases of TM images acquired in 1988 and 2008 and ASTER images acquired in 2004,this paper took Fuzhou city as a case study,compiled the land use maps in 1988,2004 and 2008 with the support of Remote Sensing and GIS,13 types of land use were classified and the transition probability matrix was calculated.The Markov model was applied to analyze and forecast the variation tendency of cultivated land in 2013,2018,2023 and 2028.The results indicate that cultivated land,paddy field and dry land decreased by 3858.4 hm2,3681.5 hm2 and 176.9 hm2 respectively and their trends were almost same.It suggests that the contradiction between the cultivated land preservation and expansion of construction land would be more acute.The study result shows that it is feasible to use the Markov model to make the quantitative forecast of the land use structure,but it still needs other methodology to improve the model in order to make it more approach the fact for cultivated change is a complex system which is affected by many comprehensive factors.