新疆工业增长与环境污染关系的计量研究

Relationship between Industrial Growth and Environmental Pollution in Xinjiang Quantitative Study

通过对国内外经济增长与环境污染关系文献的梳理,可以发现很多学者在研究二者之间关系时都是通过拟合EKC曲线来说明,用单一指标来测量环境的污染程度,选取指标过于主观;且在进行协整检验时,数据过少却没有对检验的临界值进行修正。本文采用改进熵值分析方法对工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业粉尘排放量、工业固体废物排放量五类环境指标进行客观赋权构建工业环境综合指标,以克服单一指标无法代表环境整体的缺点;引入小样本DF蒙特卡罗模拟的临界值,以克服数据不足的问题,进行协整检验研究新疆工业增长和环境污染的关系;同时进行线性、U型和N型三种模型的拟合。研究结论为:新疆工业增长与环境污染之间存在长期均衡关系,同时新疆存在具有自身特点的U型特征的EKC曲线。新疆应按照"共同但有区别"的原则制定发展规划,逐步转变发展方式,实现工业与环境的协调。

This article is mainly about the relationship between industrial growth and environmental pollution in Xinjiang.The Conclusion is that the long-run equilibrium relationship exists in Xinjiang between industrial growth and environmental pollution;meanwhile,it exists in Xinjiang that ＂localization＂ of the U-curve characteristic of EKC.It should set its own development plan in accordance with the ＂common but differentiated＂ principle,gradually change the mode of development and achieve the coordination of industrial and environment.