高淳县土地利用变化驱动因素分析与预测

DRIVING FORCES AND PREDICTION ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGE IN GAOCHUN COUNTY

以1996~2008年高淳县土地变更数据为基础资料,分析了12年中土地变化的特点及主要驱动力因子,表明：（1）12年来全县土地利用类型的变化主要表现为耕地的大幅度下降和建设用地的增加;（2）通过NOSA分析得出,影响该县土地利用变化的主要驱动力因子是经济增长和城镇化水平的提高;（3）GM（1,1）模型预测结果表明：土地利用变化的总趋势为耕地和未利用地持续减少,建设用地面积加速增长,园地和林地相对较稳定。

Base on the data from land use change survey in Gaochun Country from 1996 to 2008,this paper focuses on the research of land use change and its driving forces in Gaochun during past 12years.Main conclusions included：（1） The tendency of land use change is that the amount of cultivated land are decreasing largely and most construction land are rapidly increasing;（2） By the canonical correlation analysis of NOSA.,it is shows that the increase of the economy and urbanization that influences the whole land use change most;（3） The prediction GM（1,1） is applied to predict land use change trend in the future.The results show that the general tendency of land use change will be that the cultivated land and barren land will decrease and construction land will be steadly increasing.Garden plot and forest and will be stalde relatively in the future.