统计分析在火电企业生产经营中的应用

Statistical analysis in thermal power enterprise production and management of application

随着电力体制改革的深入,发电企业特别是火电企业在节能调度市场环境下的市场竞争越来越激烈。为适应市场,做好电量预测和电煤采购价格的规律分析,对企业合理安排生产经营目标具有积极意义。本文讨论各经济指标与重庆市全社会用电量的相关性,建立重庆市全社会用电量回归模型,并与其他回归模型对比;研究全社会用电量与统调电网用电量之间的关系并建立数学模型,形成发电量预测方法。从电煤的量价两个角度讨论重庆地区电煤价格的变化趋势,为当地火电企业电煤采购提供参考。

Along with the promotion of electric power system reformation, power generation enterprises, especially thermal power generation enterprises, are facing market competition which is getting furious under the condition of energy conservation and dispatching market. In order to adapt the market, electricity output estimate and the rule analysis on the purchasing price of coal shall be performed, which are significant factors for an enterprise to place the production and business target reasonably. The relation between economic indicators and the total power con-sumption in Chongqing has been discussed, a regression model of total power consumption in Chongqing has been built and it has been compared with other regression models; the relation between the total power consumption and power consumption oftransfter grid has been studied and a mathematical model has been built, so as to an estimate method of plant output has been found in this paper. The variation tendency of coal price in Chongqing has been discussed in terms of quantity and price of coal, and a reference for coal procurement has been provided to the local thermal power generation enterprises in this paper.