1954-2010年商丘降水变化趋势及突变分析

Precipitation Trend and Mutation Analysis of Shangqiu From 1954 to 2010

利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法,对商丘站1953年12月-2010年11月的年、季降水资料进行趋势分析、突变检验。结果显示:年、季降水量线性变化趋势均不显著,年降水量、冬夏季降水量在增加,春秋季降水量略有减少。年降水量在2003年,冬季降水量在1997年、春季降水量在1992年、夏季降水量在2003年、秋季降水量在1988年发生突变。年日降水量≥0.1 mm的日数以5.41个/10a呈极显著的减少趋势,年降水日数在1975年前后发生突变。日降水量≥25.0 mm和≥50.0 mm的强降水日数在增加,变化趋势不明显。年平均日降水量变化以0.56 mm/10a呈极显著的增加趋势,年平均日降水量在1974年前后发生突变。

Using linear regression,Mann-Kendall and other methods,the article gets the results of trend analysis and mutation testing on annual and seasonal precipitation in Shangqiu from December 1953 to November 2010.The results indicate that the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation is not significant,in summer and winter,the precipitation shows an increasing trend,and decreasing in spring and autumn.Mutations in the annual precipitation occur in 2003.In the spring,summer,autumn and winter,the mutation occurred respectively in 1992,2003,1988 and 1997.The days of daily precipitation≥0.01 mm is significantly decreasing at 5.41 d/10a,the rainy days mutates at 1975.The increasing trend of daily precipitation ≥25.0 mm and 50.0 mm is not significant.Annual average daily precipitation increases significantly at 0.56 mm/10a,and the mutation occurs in 1974.