建设用地二三产业增长贡献及空间相关性研究

Study on Construction Land Contribution to Secondary & Service Industry and Its Spatial Correlation

在土地资源总量有限和耕地保护压力巨大背景下,将建设用地纳入经济增长内生模型,研究土地要素对二三产业增长贡献,探寻省际建设用地产出弹性在空间上是否存在相关性与集聚性具有一定的理论与现实意义。已有关于建设用地经济增长贡献研究大多假设技术水平单调上升,或直接把固定资产投资当资本存量,且很少研究增长贡献的空间相关性。本文首先测算1999-2008年全国与各省技术水平及二三产业资本存量,以准确测度建设用地经济增长贡献,其次对C-D生产函数进行回归以计算建设用地产出弹性,最后用空间相关分析法分析产出弹性在空间上的相关性与集聚区域。结果表明:技术水平变化并非像以往假设一样——随时间单调上升,而是在某些年份进步迅速,某些年份进步缓慢,甚至有些年份停滞不前;资本存量对经济增长弹性最大,劳动力次之,建设用地最小,其值是0.1027;中国省际建设用地二三产业产出弹性存在全局自相关现象,自身及相邻省份的建设用地二三产业贡献水平高于平均数(HH)的区域主要分布在长江三角洲地区,与此相反(LL)的区域则主要分布在西北内陆地区。

In the context of limited land resource and enormous pressure to protect cuhivated land, puting construction land into endogenous model of secondary ＆ service growth to measure the construction land contribution and to explore the contribution correlation and clustering in spatial has certain theoretical and practical significance. The original studies on construction land contribution mostly assumed that technology was monotonic ally rising or directly took the fixed assets investment as capital stock and rarely studied the spatial correlation of construction land contribution. This paper firstly estimated the national and provincial technological progress and capital stock level between 1999 - 2008 in order to accurately measure construction land contribution to economic growth,followed by regression analysis on production function of secondary ＆ service industry to calculate the land output elasticity, and finally the analysis of spatial correlation to find the gathering area of output elasticity. The results showed that： technology change was not the same as the past assumption that technology increased monotonically with time, but rapid progress in some years, slow progress in some years, or even stagged in some years; capital stock made the largest elasticity to economic growth, followed by labor, and the elasticity of construction land was 0. 1027 which was the smallest; there was global autocorrelation phenomenon of construction land contribution, with HH region distributed in Yangtze River Delta and LL region mainly in northwest territories.