光伏市场拉动研发创新的国际研究

Cross-Country Studies on Demand Pull in Photovoltaic Sector

光伏的高成本仍然阻碍着它的大规模应用,由于技术创新是成本下降的重要因素,如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用是具有现实意义和理论价值的问题。本研究从市场发展态势的角度分析如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用。首先结合光伏产业特点和技术创新学中的相关理论,提出关于不同阶段的市场态势对市场拉动创新的影响的理论假说。然后建立市场发展态势指标和市场动力检验模型,从而利用20个国家的市场与专利历史数据进行跨国比较分析,根据计量结果识别出市场发展态势对市场发挥拉动创新作用的影响。实证结果表明20个国家中70%的市场发挥了拉动研发创新的作用;在市场培育初期持续过小的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势可用技术扩散模型中p指标进行判断;在市场发展加速期急剧扩大的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势用技术扩散模型中q指标进行判断。因此,为了促进成本降低,光伏市场政策应主导市场规模实现平稳持续型增长。

Since high cost still impedes large-scale deployment of photovoltaics （PV）, and technological innovation is one of most important factors of cost reduction, how to accelerate market pull is a topic with practical significance and theoretical value. This paper aims to analyze PV demand pull from the perspective of market trend. First, according to the characteristics of PV industry and technological innovation theories, we make hypothesis of the impacts on the market pull of different market development trends. Then we propose the index of the market development trends and testing models of the market pull, and then use these tools and historical data of twenty countries to conduct empirical studies on impacts of market development trends on market pull. The empirical results show that 70% of PV market in the twenty countries pulled technological innovation ; in the beginning of PV market development, if the market scale kept small, the market pull was insignificant and this market trend can be indicated by index p; in the acceleration period, if the market grew steeply, the market pull was insignificant and this market trend can be indicated by index q. So in order to encourage cost reduction, market policies should make the market scale grow in a smooth and continual way.