卫辉市气候变化对冬小麦播期的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Sowing Period in Weihui

使用卫辉市48 a的气温、降水观测资料,结合冬小麦适宜播种的气候指标,分析了9月下旬及10月上、中旬气温的变化趋势,15、18℃终日的变化趋势,冬前≥0℃积温的变化趋势,冬季负积温的变化趋势以及播期降水量的变化趋势,结果表明:9月下旬及10月上、中旬的旬气温平均每10 a分别升高0.31,0.24,0.40℃;15、18℃终日日期逐渐推迟;冬前≥0℃积温随年代推移呈递增趋势,平均比60年代增加了61℃.d;冬季负积温的绝对值随着年代的推移明显减少;10月上旬降水量减少趋势和10月中旬降水量增加趋势均较明显。因此,卫辉冬小麦的适播期应推迟到寒露以后。

The 48 a Weihui temperature and precipitation data,combining with the climate index for suitable sowing of winter wheat,the paper analyzes temperature trends in late September and early-to-mid October,15,18 ℃ last date change trends,before winter ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature change trends,negative accumulated temperature change in winter,and precipitation trends in sowing period.The results show that： ten-days average temperature in late September and early-to-mid October increased respectively 0.31,0.24,0.40 ℃/10a;the date of 15,18 ℃ last date gradually postponed;before winter ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased gradually over years,with an average increase of 61 ℃·d more than 1960s;the absolute value of negative accumulated temperature in winter with significantly reduced over the age.Decreasing trend of precipitation in early October and the increasing trend of precipitation in mid-October were obvious.Therefore,the suitable sowing period of winter wheat should be delayed to the cold dew later.