宁夏南部一次大雨转大雪天气过程预报失误分析

Forecast Error Analysis of a Weather Process Which Heavy Rain Turned to Heavy Snow in the Southern Ningxia

为了解2010年10月10日发生于宁夏南部山区的一次罕见大雨转大雪天气过程的预报失误原因,借助诊断分析和统计分析,分析了天气形势、影响系统、相关物理因子以及数值预报产品的预报能力,认为这次天气过程中,降水量级和降水性质的预报失误,是因为对本地秋季重大天气成因及规律认识不够,对数值预报产品的误差把握不准,并且过度依赖数值预报产品。

In order to understand the reasons for forecast errors of a rare weather process which heavy rain turned to heavy snow on October 10,2010 in the southern Ningxia,with the diagnostic analysis and statistical analysis,the paper analyzed synoptic situation,influence systems,physical factors and the prediction capacity of NWP model products.It was accounted that in this weather process,the forecast error reasons of precipitation grade and precipitation nature were not enough understanding of causes and laws of the significant weather occurred in autumn,not accurately grasping of NWP error,and overly depending on the NWP.