基于概率积分法的开采沉陷预计研究

Research of mining settlement estimate based on probability integration

为了对开采沉陷影响作出全面准确、科学合理的预测,应用了概率积分法,建立了任意点移动变形数学模型.采用抗差估计方法(IGGI方案)求取预计参数,根据实例的预测结果绘制地表下沉等值线,并依据地表破坏程度将沉陷土地划分为五个破坏等级.最后对开采沉陷区进行了影响评估,提出了开发建设意见.结果表明,抗差估计法有效提高了沉陷预计的精度.

In order to make comprehensive, accurate, scientific and reasonable forecast for the mining settlement influence, the probability integral method was applied and the mathematical model of any floating and distorted point was established. The robust estimation was used to Seek the prediction parameters, and the isoline of surface subsidence was drawn up according to the ex- ample forecasting results. The subsidence land was divided into five damage levels by the degree of surface subsidence, evaluates the damage effect for mining subsidence area was evaluated and some development construction opinions was put forward. The results prove that the robust esti- mation method can effectively improve the accuracy of settlement estimate.