中国水利之路:回顾与展望(1949—2050)

The Road of China Water Development: Retrospect and Prospect(1949-2050)

水利是国民经济的公益性、基础性和战略性支撑行业。经济社会发展对水利发展存在多种需求,并随着经济社会发展水平的提高发生结构性变迁。从中国现代化建设的历史全局着眼,通过分析百年宏观国情演变和水利发展需求变迁,可将中国百年水利进程划分为五大时期和七个阶段。改革开放之初的20年,水利改革发展大大滞后于经济社会发展的需求,人为加剧了水利发展的供求差距。1998年的大水灾促使治水思路的历史性转变,之后的十几年是新中国成立以来水利发展成效最为显著的一个时期。但是中国水利基础薄弱的局面尚没有根本改变,目前依然是国家可持续发展的主要瓶颈。2011年中央一号文件的发布与中央水利工作会议的召开,标志着中国水利发展步入新时期。未来十几年中国水利发展仍然面临着十分复杂的形势,要在相对较低的经济发展水平上开展大规模的综合治理。中国水利应当抓住历史性的战略机遇,加快发展、科学发展,加快改革、深化改革。

Water is a public sector with strategic significance,and the basis to support national economy.There are multiple demands for water development,which experience structural change with economic and social development.In the context of China's changes during the century of modernization,the process of China's water development is divided into five stages and seven periods,based on the analysis of the evolutions of economic and social development and water development demands.In the early 20 years after reform and opening,the reform and development of water sector greatly lags behind the needs of economic and social development,further deteriorating the gap between demand and supply of water development.The 1998 Floods prompted the major change of the idea of water development.From then on,it has been the most successful period to promote water development in modern China.But the foundation of water sector is still weak,which has become a major bottleneck of China's sustainable development.The No.1 Document in 2011 marks China's water development into a new stage.In the next decade,China water development will confront complex situation to carry out large-scale comprehensive governance in a relative low level of economic development.China water should seize strategic opportunities to accelerate development,scientific development,and accelerate reform,deepen the reform.