中国能源分区情景分析及可持续发展功能定位

Scenario Analysis of Energy Zoning and Function Orientation on Sustainable Development of China

论文在综合运用基于IPAT方程的情景分析法,借助ArcG IS空间分析技术的基础上,初步构建了中国能源可持续发展分区技术,基于该技术开展了中国能源分区及可持续发展功能定位研究。得到以下结论:①持续到21世纪中叶,能源消费仍集中分布于中国东部沿海地区,而能源供给则集中分布在"三北"(东北、华北与西北)地区;②中国能源对外依存度最高的区域集中分布于东部沿海京津冀、长三角与珠三角地区,具体包括上海、浙江、北京、江苏、广东与海南,而能源对外依存度最小的省份则主要分布于"三北"地区;③按能源可持续利用情况把中国划分为五大区,即能源强不可持续区(I)、能源不可持续区(II)、能源弱可持续区(III)、能源可持续区(IV)与能源强可持续区(V)。最大幅度地挖掘能源资源潜力,实现能源资源的本地化、多元化及来源的多元化是强输入区(I区)、次强输入区(II区)实现能源可持续发展的必然选择;不断提升可再生能源对非可再生能源的替代力度,优化能源结构是自给自足区(III区)的核心所在;作为周边区域能源安全缓冲区是次强输出区(IV区)的主要职责;作为国家能源安全保障区和能源基地是强输出区(V区)的功能所在。

This paper constructs a preliminary framework of energy sustainable development zoning of China by comprehensively using of scenario analysis based on IPAT equation and GIS spatial analysis.And then it carries out research on energy sustainable development zoning and regional function orientation of China based on this framework.From the above analysis we drew the following conclusions： 1） upon entering the mid 21st century,the primary energy demand is still concentrated mostly in developed areas along the east coast of China,while energy supply is mainly distributed in the Northeast China,North China and Northwest China（＂Three North＂ areas for short）;2） the highest energy dependence rates are found concentrated in the east coast of China,such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,specifically including the cities of Shanghai,Beijing,the provinces of Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Guangdong and Hainan,while the minimum foreign energy dependence is mainly distributed in the ＂Three North＂ areas;3） we can initially divide China into five regions by energy sustainability： strong unsustainable area（I）,unsustainable area（II）,weak sustainable area（III）,sustainable area（IV） and strong sustainable area（V）.Among them,for energy stronger input area（I）,in order to achieve sustainable energy,the most significant choice is,on the one hand,to explore the potential of local energy resources realizing the localization of energy resources,while on the other hand,to diversify structure and sources of energy resources;for strong input area（II）,achieving localization and diversification of energy resources is the main task;for self-sufficient area（III）,enhancing the share of renewable energy in the energy structure and optimizing the energy structure is the core of the area;for strong output area（IV）,as a regional energy security buffer is the main function of this area;and for stronger output area（V）,as a national energy security protection zone and energy base are the primary responsibilities and functions of this area.