秸秆燃烧比例时空变化与影响因素——以江苏省为例

The Spatial-temporal Variation of the Burning Proportion of Crop Straw and Its Influencing Factors——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

通过对江苏省47个县(市)农户的实地问卷调查,分析了江苏省不同地区4个研究阶段(1990—1995年、1996—2000年、2001—2005年和2006—2008年)的秸秆利用状况及影响秸秆田间燃烧的因素。结果表明,全省秸秆作为家用燃料比例在上述4个研究阶段均值分别为62.81%、59.76%、27.55%和24.13%,田间燃烧比例分别为21.16%、23.93%、53.29%和47.87%,两者逐阶段变化趋势正好相反,显著变化皆出现在第二与第三研究阶段之间,在第三阶段(2001—2005年)家用燃料比例较之前明显下降,而田间燃烧比例显著上升。苏北地区(淮安、连云港、宿迁、徐州和盐城)秸秆作为家用燃料比例(54.22%)较苏中苏南(南通、扬州、泰州、镇江、无锡和苏州)地区(34.68%)高,而秸秆田间燃烧比例(29.60%)较苏中苏南地区(42.37%)低。秸秆田间燃烧比例与农户兼业比例、年均收入、家庭炊事活动用电量及务农人员年龄呈极显著正线性相关(P<0.01)。Logistic回归分析模型显示对农户田间燃烧意愿选择有显著影响的因子主要是4个,按影响程度由大到小依次为农户家庭兼业比例、家庭种植面积、农户年均收入和秸秆用作家用燃料比例。

In order to find out the spatial-temporal variation of the proportion of six crop straws（rice,wheat,maize,oil rape,cotton and soybean） used as household fuel,direct open burning and its influencing factors in different periods（1990-1995,1996-2000,2001-2005 and 2006-2008）,the questionnaire survey during the above four study periods in 47 counties of Jiangsu Province was carried out.Logistic regression model,including the ratio of farmers taking job in cities,age structure of family population going in for agriculture,family incomes,kitchen power consumption,the ratio of crop straw used as domestic fuel and acreage of six crops factors,was set up to discuss the influencing factors of farmers＇ willing to chose direct burning crop straw in fields.Results showed that the mean proportion of straw used as household fuel in Jiangsu Province during the above four research periods were 62.81%,59.76%,27.55% and 24.13%,respectively,and the mean proportion of straw open burning in fields were 21.16%,23.93%,53.29% and 47.87%,respectively.They had an opposite tendency and the obvious change appeared in the second and third research periods.The mean proportion of crop straw used as household fuel decreased obviously in the third research period（2001-2005） compared with the previous periods,while the mean proportion of straw open burning increased significantly.There was regional disparity for crop straw using in northern（including Huaian,Suqian,Lianyungang,Xuzhou and Yancheng）,central and southern parts（including Nantong,Yangzhou,Taizhou,Zhenjiang,Wuxi and Suzhou） of Jiangsu Province.The proportion of crop straw used as household fuel（54.22%） in the northern part was higher than the central and southern parts（34.68%）,while the ratio of crop straw open burning（29.60%） was lower than the central and southern parts（42.37%）.Further analysis indicated that the positive linear relationships（P0.01） between the proportion of crop straw open burning and the four factors,such as the ratio of farmers taking job in cities,age of farmers,family income and kitchen power consumption.Logistic regression model established declared that four factors had a significant effect on the farmers＇ willingness to choose crop straw open burning in fields,and the degree of influence followed the order of the ratio of farmers taking job in cities acreage family incomes the ratio of crop straw used as household fuel.