一种长期电力市场模拟的解析模型

An analytical model for the long-term electricity market simulation

构建了一种长期电力市场的理论计算模型,该模型继承于电力系统随机生产模型,考虑了机组的强迫停运以及负荷随时间的波动变化。在此基础上,考虑了机组报价的不确定性,并将其归结为离散的随机变量。按照市场统一出清的规则,提出了一种以等效机组代替机组容量块的求解算法,并给出了数学证明以及计算量估计。给出了基于IEEERTS数据的计算结果,通过与MonteCarlo算法的比较证实了该算法的正确性。

In this paper, a long-term electricity market simulation model is developed. This model inherits from the model of probabilistic power system simulation and takes the forced outage of the generating units and the fluctuation of load into consideration. On this basis, the stochastic bidding of the generating units is also researched. The stochastic bidding is described as discrete stochastic variable. According to the market clearing rule, an algorithm is given, in which the capacity blocks of the units are replaced by the equivalent units, to calculate the expected production energy of generating units, the reliability index （LOLP, EUE）, and the probability distribution of marginal price. Using the equivalent units, the algorithm has light computation burden. Finally, the IEEE RTS is applied to the case study, and the result is given. A comparison of the proposed algorithm and the Monte Carlo method shows the correctness of the presented algorithm.