迁移成本、工资上升与刘易斯转折点——一个对“刘易斯转折点”分析框架的再探讨

Migration Costs,Wage Rising and the Lewis Turning Point:A Theoretical Analysis from the Perspective of Migration Costs

本文从引起劳动供给条件变化的迁移成本角度对刘易斯转折点与工资上涨的关系进行探讨。分析认为,具有刘易斯转折点意义的工资上升必须同时满足两个条件:(1)必须是劳动力市场供求作用的结果,任何非劳动力供求因素变化本身导致的工资上涨都不代表转折点的到来;(2)必须是劳动力转移的结果,任何与劳动力转移无关的因素导致的工资上涨都不能作为判断转折点出现的标志。由迁移成本上升导致的"补偿工资上升"与具有刘易斯转折点意义的"工资上升"并不具有同样的性质。因此,在进行工资上涨与中国的刘易斯转折点是否到来的分析时,需要将这些引起迁移成本变化而与劳动力转移无关的因素加以分离,否则得出的结论很可能是有偏的。

In this paper,we provide an in-depth analytical frame work for understanding wage rise and the'Lewis Turning Point',from the perspective of migration costs.It is found that the wage rise in the sense of'Lewis Turing Point'should satisfy two conditions:(1) it is driven by the supply and demand forces in the labor market,and(2) it is the result of labor migration itself.Compensation wage rise to cover the increasing migration costs is different in nature from the wage rise that leads to the 'Lewis Turing Point'.Conclusions based on undifferentiated estimation will therefore be biased.